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The next breakthrough technology for battery storage power: battery storage is entering a dynamic, uncertain period of development. The development of future value breakthrough technologies depends on four factors: the speed of the decline in energy storage costs; How power companies adapt to the market by improving services, combining new distributed energy alternatives and reducing the cost of grid systems; Whether the breakthrough technology of third-party institutions is flexible; Whether regulators can strike a proper balance between encouraging healthy energy storage (and solar) markets and ensuring a sustainable economy in the power generation sector. All of these are still being explored in uncertainty, and there is no doubt that there will be gains and losses on the way to exploration. But there is also no doubt that the age of energy storage has come.
one. The low cost energy storage of breakthrough technology will change the whole pattern of the power industry.
1,can the the fact that the future society and far-reaching impact on the capital market, because the consumer electronics market and the demand for electric vehicle (EV) is growing, the price of energy storage battery prices fall more quickly than any of the expected. Major manufacturers in Asia, Europe and the United States are expanding the capacity of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and other power applications. The price of battery packs reached nearly $1,000 a kilowatt-hour in 2010. However, the cost of the battery pack has dropped unexpectedly to $230 per kilowatt hour in 2016.
2,The McKinsey study found that for many business customers, it was economically feasible to reduce their peak power demand by storing energy equipment. In the current price is lower, energy storage began to play a broader role in the energy market, and from the grid balance niche market into a wider range of applications, such as alternatives to traditional generators to improve power supply reliability and stability, support renewable energy grid integration, etc.
3,in addition, given that many market adjustment of subsidies for solar incentives change, combining solar power generation and energy storage, can make the home users according to their own needs to store and use of electricity produced, it will be very attractive to users (also known as off-grid). We believe ups uninterruptible power supply battery energy storage market will continue to grow, and that for now facing customer demand growth or decline phenomenon of electric power sales companies has brought the huge challenge. Finally, in combination with solar power and energy storage plus a small generator (also known as off-grid) completely, in the next few years, can bring economic benefits for some of the high cost of market customers.
4,in this article we will analysis, along with the development of the industry trends, we, grid energy storage will change and the operation of electricity market, the user power consumption and production, and the role of power companies and the third party. Our analysis focuses on developments in Europe and the United States; Changes in energy storage can also be shown in different ways in other markets.
two:Impact of breakthrough technologies on power companies:
1,Energy storage devices can be deployed in the power grid and in individual households or in commercial facilities. It is a complex technology, and its economic applicability is determined by various factors such as customer type, location, grid demand, regulations, user load curve, rate structure and application properties. The energy storage battery has unique flexibility to stack different value chains, or change its flushing mode to meet different user needs. The energy storage business chain is growing in both value and market size (see chart below).
2,Under different application scenario economic value and the development trend of battery energy storage cheap battery energy storage device will pose challenges to power after the "table" (table after power generation, is installed in the building of small-scale power generation equipment, for example, in homes and buildings). However, breakthrough technology also provides an opportunity for "pre-table power generation" (a large power generation company with various parallel application functions).
3,After tables, power generation (client) : has been proved that cheap solar power industry is a challenge to some markets, but cheap portable energy storage battery energy storage equipment will be more damaging to the market, because by using different combinations of energy storage and photovoltaic power generation, will be possible from any electric power company in the design of the floating price model arbitrage, this phenomenon may be occur.
4. Specifically, the net metering electricity price (NEM) has rules that show that surplus power can be sold back to the grid at retail prices; The feed-in tariff is a subsidy for the electricity price of renewable energy, which plays an important role in expanding the global renewable energy market. In the us, the NEM has proved to be a powerful incentive for consumers to install solar photovoltaic power.
5,Although the NEM policy has helped the development of solar energy, it has put some pressure on power generation enterprises. Consumers can produce their own electricity, reducing the need for electricity. That has led to higher prices for other consumers, as fewer people pay for the construction of the grid, which remains a reliable source of power for solar users. Solar users pay for their own electricity, but do not pay for the grid that is reliable. Electric power company's response is to design and use long charge of electricity price table on time in order to reduce the enthusiasm of the users to install solar power generation equipment, set up the demand of electricity (basic electricity) or lower when users surplus electricity price.
However in the environment of low cost energy storage, the above fee structure will do little to relieve the load loss of the power grid. That's because adding energy storage devices allows users to switch from selling solar power to a larger proportion of their own electricity needs. As a result, the gains they receive are similar to those used to sell electricity back to the grid with a full retail price. This led to a wide range of power grid load loss risk, customers choose to remain connected to the grid, reliable backup power for 24/7 (all), but they can still energy by 80% to 90% of the solar power production for private use, and use the optimization using energy storage technology.
Such power storage is already at a high cost of generating electricity, and the spread of solar power is starting to appear in places like Australia and Hawaii. In the near future, it may also appear in other solar support markets, such as Arizona, California, Nevada and New York (chart 2). Many industry executives and industry experts believe that the risk of using solar energy to cause load losses is overstated. But if solar energy is combined with energy-storage technology, it will become more difficult to defend that view.
6,The breakthrough technology completely disconnected from the grid -- that is, completely disconnected from the centralized power system -- is not economically practical now. However, according to the current rate of decline in the cost of power storage devices, breakthrough technologies are likely to be implemented in some markets earlier than expected. Of course, economics itself does not determine when a customer chooses to disconnect from the power grid provided by the power company. Another important factor, for example, is confidence in the reliability of electricity generation in buildings. But this dynamic will affect business model and regulatory decisions much earlier.
7. Pre-breakthrough technology watch (power plant generation).
Energy storage technology is also good for power companies to help them deal with planning and operational problems in the more volatile electricity markets. , for example, some states regulators in the United States are through the way of feedback your power company to reward, let the power company provide the contract distributed generation, among other things, power battery technology development status of comprehensive creations also share on the site before, but this article will delay electric power company for new project of high investment, long investment cycle and reduce the risk of project has been put on hold.
Power companies can also purchase reliable energy storage assets to meet long-term regulatory requirements and short-term needs, such as reliability requirements and the extension of the construction cycle of new substations. As the storage costs decline, these projects can reduce power generation cost, thus reduce the consumption of electricity to the existing conventional pressure on the gas and coal, inhibition of traditional energy market prices and provide load tracking service.
three,The power company's breakthrough technology may be as follows:
1,Power companies must start now to understand how low-cost storage can change the future. In fact, power companies need to make their own breakthroughs, or they will be on the defensive. There are two broad categories of action to consider.
2,redesigning compensation structures and exploring new opportunities regulators and power companies will sooner or later need to find new ways to get their investment back in the grid, the sooner the better.
3.The power grid is a long-term asset, which is expensive to build and maintain. The need for fixed fees for grid access is not popular among consumers, so regulators are not particularly keen. However, the fixed fees charged can ensure that everyone who USES the grid is paying for it. The volume or variability structure used now is a historical relic, and people are used to paying for the electricity they use. But as more and more users are able to use their own energy, the reliability and market value of the grid will be more valuable than the power itself.
4,since any price change would be slow growth (especially to the change of the fixed fee), electric power company needs by extending the new trade measures such as cost, service and charge for new business opportunities, breakthrough technology to cope with these new markets. There are some interesting trends in these directions; In Australia, power companies are becoming solar and storage installers and provide 12.8V lithium battery advisory services. In the United States, a pilot project is implemented, the project sales advanced analysis and data management services to consumers, to help them manage energy use, several state electric power company also are exploring new breakthrough technical services, and investment to realize the modernization of power grid and electrification.
5,Rethinking the planning of power grid systems by the grid system. This means investing in software and advanced analytics tools to modernize the grid. It also means to rethink the industry codes and standards (some of which has existed for decades), the transition to independent circuit node planning, and USES the asset health assessment to ensure that the priority is the most important system requirements. These programmes will transform traditional grid planning.
6.Energy storage can be a unique means to support the reform of power grid system. Change of power grid planning in economics intuitive returns on capital in the early doesn't look big, but due to the energy storage equipment will be further development of modular, and transportation more convenient, controllable degree of risk is relatively high. This will allow power companies to adapt to the uncertain needs of various circuits and reduce the risk of overbuilding and shelving investments.
7,Third-party breakthrough technologies for third parties, namely distributed energy (DER) companies, technology manufacturers and financial institutions, have huge potential for growth in energy storage. But they must be flexible to take advantage of these opportunities. Distributed energy company may, according to the specific purposes, breakthrough technology designing new power generation and energy storage lithium battery equipment combination, while the energy storage enables users to lower prices to obtain higher yields, new tariff structure will be even more complicated, and locking policy is unlikely to long-term electricity price; Shorter fixed-price cycles and more complex electricity structures will make it harder for DER providers to get new customers; As new customers, they don't like complexity and want to be sure that their investments will be rewarded; The creativity of new products and financing is key to facing these challenges and can attract customers who are still on the sidelines.
8,Breakthrough technology participants also need to understand how and where to control the energy storage value chain, and provide products that adapt and meet customer needs with the rapid development of technology and use cases.
9,Financing institutions, such as Banks and institutional investors, will need to provide financing options for adapting and matching clients' investment horizons. As markets become more trusting of underlying economic and energy-storage growth, financing institutions will also develop financial products that meet specific technical requirements. By then, the cost of breakthrough technology financing will be lowered, further tapping the market potential and forming a virtuous circle, similar to the development of the solar industry over the past decade.
Check out the site map for the next breakthrough technology for more relevant battery storage power.